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Mounting apprehensions exist about the possibility of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for passage to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in last year that his nation's access to the sea was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

In 1998, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "rectified tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

Amid ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on social media from Information Minister the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for maritime entry calling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming previous domains.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Region

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The director of staff section of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was governed by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict occurred, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their shared boundary, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was over – a action that gained the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's previous civil war in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have later worsened once more.