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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However the current field is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still